Most clinics quote one flattering percentage and leave out the denominator. This estimator does the opposite. Pick your age band, your pathway and what is already known about you, and it shows a range - per cycle and across three - built on published ART registry data, with the assumptions written down.
For IVF, the chance of a live birth per started cycle runs about 52-58% under 30, 44-50% at 30-34, 33-39% at 35-37, 21-27% at 38-40 and 4-7% at 43 and over. Donor-egg cycles stay near 50-58% at every age, because the eggs come from a young screened donor.
Every control changes the readout immediately. Nothing here is submitted anywhere.
| Cycles completed | Chance of at least one live birth |
|---|---|
| 1 | 44% to 50% |
| 2 | 69% to 75% |
| 3 | 82% to 88% |
Five steps, in the order the tool applies them. Nothing is hidden behind the percentage.
Age is the strongest single predictor of a live birth, because it governs both egg number and egg quality. The estimator opens on the published live-birth range for your band.
IVF, ICSI, a frozen transfer, IUI and donor-egg cycles have materially different curves. ICSI is scored on the IVF curve because registries report it inside IVF.
Ovarian reserve, BMI, smoking, previous cycles and the reason for treatment each shift the range by a published, bounded amount.
Most people who conceive through IVF do so within three cycles, so the estimate is plotted cumulatively as well as per cycle.
Scans, hormone results and semen analysis narrow the range far more than any online tool can. That is the step this page is designed to lead into.
Each bar is the multiplier this estimator applies. Left of the centre line lowers the chance, right raises it.
From first blood test to pregnancy test is about four weeks. Here is where each week goes.
AMH, hormone profile, scan and semen analysis. Your protocol is chosen from the results, not from a template.
Daily injections encourage several follicles to mature together, with scans every two to three days to track the response.
A 20-minute procedure under sedation. Eggs are handed straight to the embryology laboratory.
Eggs are fertilised by IVF or ICSI and cultured to blastocyst, with grading reported to you each day.
One embryo is usually transferred; the rest are vitrified. A frozen transfer is often planned into a later, calmer cycle.
A blood beta-hCG, not a home kit. A positive is followed by a scan at around six weeks.
Four things worth knowing before this figure influences a decision.
“70% success” usually means per embryo transfer, counted after everything that could go wrong already has. Per started cycle - the honest denominator, and the one used here - is always lower. Ask every clinic which they are quoting.
Cumulative chance assumes each cycle is independent. In reality couples who do not conceive early are somewhat less likely to conceive later, so the real curve flattens sooner than the one plotted above. We would rather tell you that than draw a prettier line.
A 25% chance is not a 0% chance, and a 55% chance is not a guarantee. The number describes a group of people who share a few of your characteristics, not you. Scans, hormone results and your response to stimulation narrow it far more than any input on this page.
Stopping smoking, BMI and thyroid control all help, and are worth doing. But age moves in one direction while you optimise, so do these alongside planning rather than instead of it.
It is a well-founded starting point, not a prediction. The starting bands are informed by published HFEA and CDC ART reporting, grouped by age and adjusted by this tool for selected patient factors. Your own chance depends on details no online tool can see: scan findings, hormone profile, sperm quality on the day, and how the ovaries respond to stimulation. Treat the range as a conversation starter, and let a consultation refine it.
Because a single number would be false precision. Registry data itself reports bands, clinics differ, and two people in the same age group with the same AMH can respond very differently. A range is the honest shape of the answer. If any tool gives you one exact percentage for IVF success, be sceptical of it.
Yes - it is the single strongest factor, because it drives both the number of eggs and their chromosomal quality. Live-birth chance per started cycle falls from roughly 52-58% under 30 to about 4-7% at 43 and over. That is also why donor-egg cycles hold steady across ages: the eggs come from a young screened donor.
It is the chance of at least one live birth if you complete that many cycles. It rises quickly because each cycle is a fresh attempt. One caveat we would rather state than hide: the calculation treats cycles as independent, and in reality they are not - couples who do not conceive in earlier cycles are somewhat less likely to conceive in later ones. So read the three-cycle figure as an optimistic ceiling, not a promise.
Some things genuinely move the number. Stopping smoking is the clearest single change either partner can make. Bringing BMI into the healthy range helps, as does controlling thyroid and blood-sugar problems and treating conditions such as endometriosis or a uterine septum before a transfer. Age works against you while you wait, so these are best done alongside planning, not instead of it.
No. These are registry-typical bands published for ART as a field, used here so the estimate is grounded in something verifiable rather than marketing. Ask any clinic - including us - for their own audited figures for your age band and treatment type, and ask what denominator they use. Success per started cycle and success per embryo transfer are very different numbers.
No. The estimator runs entirely in your browser. Nothing you select is submitted, saved or sent anywhere, and you do not need to give a name, number or email to see your full result.
Bring this estimate to a consultation and we will narrow it with your own AMH, scan and semen analysis - and tell you plainly if IVF is not the right next step for you.
For compassionate care and expert guidance on your journey to parenthood - our team is here for you, every step of the way.
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